Justice Nexus

Open Source Intelligence Brief: Strategic Scenario—U.S. Civil War and the Destabilization of Saudi Arabia

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This analysis, presented on behalf of concerned citizens in both the United States and Saudi Arabia, neutrally examines how a fracturing civil war in the U.S. could trigger the rapid collapse of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. While the following is a strategic scenario rather than an assertion of imminent reality, it demands the urgent attention of policymakers, scholars, and civil society: we must address our collective vulnerabilities before opportunistic actors exploit them.

1. UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS

  1. U.S. Fragmentation
    • A breakdown of federal authority in late 2025 leads to competing power centers, armed insurgencies, and the effective withdrawal of U.S. forces from overseas commitments.
  2. Saudi Reliance on U.S. Security
    • Over 60 % of Saudi defense hardware and operational support depends on U.S. bases and personnel at Prince Sultan and al-Udeid .
  3. Economic Precarity
    • Saudi Arabia’s budget requires an oil price of roughly $80 /barrel to break even. A global conflict-driven demand shock could force prices below $40 /barrel, doubling its deficit to $120 billion annually .
  4. Domestic Tensions
    • Youth unemployment (~25 %) and systemic marginalization of the Shia minority (~15 % of the population) create tinderbox conditions in the Eastern Province .

2. PROJECTED SEQUENCE OF EVENTS

  1. Phase 1: Security Vacuum (0–3 Months)
    • U.S. Air Cover Ends: Patriot-PAC3 batteries and AWACS rotations cease as troops redeploy domestically—exposing Saudi airspace.
    • Oil-Price Collapse: Plunging below $40 /barrel, Saudi revenues evaporate. Sovereign reserves deplete rapidly, demanding emergency bond sales.
  2. Phase 2: External Pressure (3–9 Months)
    • Houthi Escalation: Without U.S. naval presence, missile and drone assaults on Red Sea shipping lanes surge. Insurance premiums spike 400 %, crippling Saudi exports.
    • Iranian Influence: Tehran offers “protections” in exchange for political concessions, undermining Saudi sovereignty and deepening internal divides.
  3. Phase 3: Domestic Upheaval (9–18 Months)
    • Mass Protests: Subsidy cuts and unemployment spark mass demonstrations in Riyadh and Dammam, quickly co-opted by Eastern Province Shia factions into armed insurrections targeting oil infrastructure.
    • Palace Infighting: House of Saud factions fracture—conservative hardliners clash with reform-minded princes. A palace coup topples the ruling monarch, accelerating regime disintegration.
  4. Phase 4: State Disintegration (18–24 Months)
    • Territorial Fragmentation: Eastern oil fields fall under militia control; the Hejaz proclaims semi-autonomy. The central government collapses, triggering regional refugee crises and a global oil shock.

3. THREAT ANALYSIS

  • Regional Power Shift
    • Iran fills the vacuum, extending its influence across the Gulf. The Gulf Cooperation Council fractures under competing alliances.
  • Global Energy Instability
    • Prices could spike above $150 /barrel, fueling worldwide inflation and supply-chain breakdowns.
  • Safe Havens for Extremists
    • Ungoverned zones in Eastern and Southern provinces become breeding grounds for AQAP and ISIS-K.
  • Humanitarian Crisis
    • Millions displaced internally and across borders, overwhelming Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt.
  • Proliferation Risks
    • Gulf states, desperate for deterrence, may pursue indigenous nuclear or missile programs—raising proliferation alarms.

4. DEMANDING URGENT ACTION

On behalf of citizens in both nations—tired of seeing our futures gambled by power-hungry actors—we insist on:

  1. Diversified Security Alliances
    • Gulf states must build robust, multilateral defense frameworks to reduce single-point dependence on any one power.
  2. Global Oil-Market Safeguards
    • The International Energy Agency and major producers must agree on reserve-release protocols tied to conflict indicators.
  3. Domestic Resilience in Saudi Arabia
    • Accelerate true economic diversification beyond oil and enact meaningful social reforms to integrate marginalized communities.
  4. U.S. National Reconciliation
    • American leaders must urgently restore federal cohesion, reaffirm constitutional norms, and deescalate internal divisions—our global commitments cannot survive otherwise.
  5. Humanitarian Preparedness
    • UN agencies and regional partners must pre-position aid, design cross-border support corridors, and prepare for large-scale displacement.

5. SOURCES

  1. CSIS, “U.S.–Saudi Defense Cooperation: Status and Prospects,” March 2025.
  2. IMF, “Saudi Arabia: Fiscal Break-Even Oil Price,” World Economic Outlook, April 2025.
  3. Carnegie Endowment, “Sectarian Tensions in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province,” December 2024.

Prepared for: Justice Nexus Readers
Date: June 8, 2025 (America/New_York)
Classification: Unclassified/Hypothetical Scenario

This scenario analysis remains neutral in its projection but demands decisive policy responses from leaders in both countries and the broader international community.

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