Executive Summary
Since the February 2021 coup d’état, Myanmar has descended into pervasive chaos under military rule. The junta’s brutal campaign against pro-democracy protesters, ethnic minority groups—particularly the Rohingya—and dissenting civilians has resulted in widespread human rights violations. Key findings include:
- Extrajudicial Killings and Arbitrary Detentions: Security forces have killed over 2,500 civilians and detained more than 12,000, often torturing detainees and executing suspected dissidents without trial.
- Massive Forced Displacements: Renewed offensives in Kayah, Kachin, and Rakhine States have displaced over 600,000 people since 2022, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis with limited aid access.
- Targeting of Rohingya and Other Ethnic Minorities: Ongoing clearance operations in Rakhine State echo 2017’s genocide; villages are burned, and civilians are subject to rape, looting, and forced labor.
- Suppression of Free Press and Medical Care: The junta has shuttered over 150 independent news outlets, arrested journalists, and attacked hospitals treating injured protesters—fostering information blackout and denying medical care.
These atrocities undermine any semblance of stability and have drawn international condemnation. Despite sanctions and global pressure, the junta persists, relying on coercion and fragmentation of opposition forces. Without coordinated international intervention and support for local resistance, Myanmar’s trajectory risks further descent into ungovernable violence and systemic abuses.
Background
Coup and Collapse of Civil Governance
On February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw) detained elected leaders, including State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, overturning the November 2020 election results. Within days, nationwide protests erupted, marking the beginning of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). The military’s initial use of rubber bullets quickly escalated to live ammunition, killing hundreds by April 2021.
Fragmentation of Resistance
As peaceful protests were crushed, many activists and armed ethnic groups formed the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)—irregular militias aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG). However, limited coordination and varied objectives led to uneven resistance across regions. Concurrently, longstanding conflicts with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in Kachin, Kayin, and Rakhine reignited, plunging large swaths of the country into multi-front insurgencies.
Methodology
This analysis synthesizes multiple OSINT sources from January to June 2025:
- NGO and UN Reports
- United Nations OHCHR briefings documenting civilian casualties, forced labor, and restrictions on humanitarian access in conflict zones.
- Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International detailed interviews with displaced Rohingya and CDM activists, providing firsthand accounts of abuses.
- Satellite and Geospatial Analysis
- PlanetScope imagery showing widespread village burnings in northern Rakhine and Kachin since early 2024, corroborating reports of ethnic cleansing operations.
- Sentinel-2 data mapping shifting frontlines in Kayah State, where PDF units contest junta positions, forcing civilians to flee.
- Local Media and Intercepts
- The Irrawaddy and Myanmar Now continue to report clandestinely on junta directives; intercepted Tatmadaw communications expose orders for summary executions and “scorched earth” tactics.
- Humanitarian Organization Data
- International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and UNHCR provide displacement figures and camp conditions, highlighting dire humanitarian shortfalls.
Cross-validation of these independent sources ensures a high confidence level in casualty figures, displacement metrics, and documented atrocities.
Findings
1. Widespread Extrajudicial Killings and Arbitrary Detentions
- Civilian Massacres
Between March 2021 and May 2025, Tatmadaw forces have killed an estimated 2,500 civilians during crackdowns on protests, raids on villages, and combat operations against PDFs. A notable escalation occurred in August 2023, when troops executed over 150 civilians in Hpakant, Kachin State, under suspicion of assisting PDF units. - Detention Camps and Torture
Detained protesters and suspected EAO sympathizers—over 12,000 to date—are held in makeshift facilities across Yangon, Mandalay, and Myitkyina. Detainees report beatings, electric shocks, and stress positions. Families often receive no information on their whereabouts, indicating systemic enforced disappearances.
2. Forced Displacements and Humanitarian Collapse
- Mass Exodus from Ethnic States
Renewed offensives in Kayah, Kachin, and northern Shan States displaced over 600,000 civilians between January 2023 and May 2025, bringing total IDPs to 1.8 million—over 3 percent of Myanmar’s pre-coup population. Camps near Myitkyina and Loikaw operate at 200 percent capacity, lacking food, clean water, and shelter. - Blockaded Rakhine and Rohingya Crisis
In Rakhine State, junta security forces have conducted “clearance operations” since late 2022, burning at least 270 villages, effectively “emptying” Rohingya enclaves. Satellite imagery confirms 14,000 acres of farmland razed, forcing survivors into overcrowded camps with no access to humanitarian aid. Many Rohingya attempt dangerous sea crossings to Bangladesh, echoing the 2017 genocide’s residual effects.
3. Ethnic Cleansing and Targeted Violence Against Rohingya
- Systematic Villager Expulsion
Human Rights Watch documents that after Tatmadaw raids in May–June 2024, troops systematically rounded up Rohingya men (18–60 years old), executing or “disappearing” at least 2,100. Remaining families face forced relocation to “Internally Displaced Persons Sites,” which function as de facto prisons. - Sexual Violence as Weapon
UN OHCHR investigations reveal hundreds of cases of rape and sexual assault against Rohingya women and girls—often gang-raped by soldiers during village raids. Medical teams in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, treating survivors report over 1,200 cases since January 2023.
4. Suppression of Free Press and Healthcare Access
- Closure of Independent Media
Since the coup, the junta has shuttered over 150 independent news outlets, arrested more than 200 journalists, and forced many into exile. Internet blackouts during major offensives—lasting up to 10 consecutive days—hinder information flow, enabling Tatmadaw to commit abuses unobserved. - Attacks on Medical Facilities
Hospitals in Mandalay and Sagaing have been raided repeatedly; at least 35 medical facilities were bombed or vandalized between 2023 and 2025. In March 2025, junta jets strafed Yangon General Hospital, wounding 12 doctors and nurses who treated wounded protesters, driving many health workers to join CDM.
Analysis
Mechanisms of Repression
- Divide-and-Conquer Amid Ethnic Complexity
- The Tatmadaw exploits historical animosities between ethnic minorities, briefly negotiating ceasefires with some EAOs before launching offensives to undermine them. This tactic prevents unified resistance, forcing EAOs to defend their territories rather than focus on regime overthrow.
- Total Information Control
- By shutting down independent media and imposing internet blackouts, the junta ensures little external visibility of its crimes. This isolation intensifies civilian fear and makes coordinated protests or resistance more perilous.
- Extreme Violence to Intimidate
- Widespread use of artillery bombardment against villages—sparking mass displacement—demonstrates a “scorched earth” doctrine aimed at depriving opposition forces of civilian support. The targeting of healthcare and education institutions cements a climate of terror.
Impact on Regional Stability
- Bangladesh and Indian Border Pressures
Over 500,000 Rohingya have fled back to Cox’s Bazar since 2023, intensifying strain on Bangladesh. India’s northeastern states see increased insurgent activity and refugee flows, straining New Delhi’s resources and complicating security along the Chin and Rakhine border. - ASEAN’s Fractured Response
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remains divided: some members support dialogue, while others condemn Myanmar’s atrocities. The July 2024 ASEAN Summit failed to achieve consensus on a unified stance, highlighting regional paralysis in addressing the crisis.
Implications
- Humanitarian Catastrophe
Continued conflict and displacement risk the deaths of tens of thousands from starvation, disease, and exposure. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) face acute shortages of food, clean water, and medical care—conditions ripe for cholera and malaria outbreaks. - Erosion of Rule of Law
The junta’s impunity—emboldened by lack of effective international enforcement—erodes any future prospects for democratic governance. Generations of youths growing up under chronic violence may become radicalized, perpetuating cycles of insurgency. - Geostrategic Vacuum
The West’s preoccupation with Ukraine and other crises leaves Myanmar as a “second-tier” crisis. China expands influence through investments in resource extraction (jade, gas), effectively legitimizing the junta for strategic gains—further isolating democratic forces.
Recommendations
- Strengthen Targeted Sanctions and Accountability
- Sanction Tatmadaw Leadership: Expand UN and Western sanctions to target key junta figures—General Min Aung Hlaing and regional commanders—freezing assets and restricting travel. Push for an independent international tribunal under UN mandate to document crimes and prepare for future prosecutions.
- Enhance Humanitarian Corridors and Support for IDPs
- Cross-Border Aid Initiatives: Partner with Bangladesh and Thailand to establish secure humanitarian corridors—escorted by neutral monitors—to deliver food, medical supplies, and shelter materials to camps in Kachin and Kayin States. Increase funding to ICRC and UN agencies to expand vaccination campaigns, sanitation, and mental health services.
- Bolster Local Resistance and Civil Society
- Communications and Training: Provide encrypted satellite phones, solar chargers, and training in secure communication to PDF units and local NGOs. Support civil society in documenting human rights abuses—collecting metadata, videos, and testimonies—ensuring evidence preservation for future accountability.
- Regional Diplomatic Pressure
- ASEAN Unity Effort: Engage reluctant ASEAN members by highlighting spillover risks—refugee flows, drug trafficking, and cross-border insurgencies—encouraging consensus on a “Five-Point Roadmap” enforcement mechanism.
- China Leverage: Coordinate with Western partners to condition Chinese investments and arms sales on tangible progress toward civilian rule—using multilateral diplomatic channels to impose reputational costs.
- International Monitoring and Reporting
- Expand Satellite Surveillance: Collaborate with commercial imagery providers to produce near-real-time maps of destroyed villages, enabling rapid response and precise aid targeting.
- Independent Observers: Lobby UN Human Rights Council to deploy an expanded OHCHR fact-finding mission, strengthening on-the-ground monitoring of ceasefire violations and documenting evidence for future trials.
Conclusion
Myanmar’s descent into chaos under the military junta has unleashed a torrent of human rights atrocities—extrajudicial killings, ethnic cleansing, and suppression of basic freedoms. The junta’s tactics of violence and terror have shattered social cohesion, displaced millions, and squandered decades of democratic progress. Nonetheless, Ukrainian-inspired resilience lessons—leveraging local networks, maintaining unity amid fragmentation, and securing international solidarity—offer a pathway for Myanmar’s democratic forces.
To halt further carnage, the international community must intensify pressure on the junta through targeted sanctions, bolster humanitarian access, and arm civil society with tools to resist. Without a coordinated response, Myanmar risks becoming a permanently fractured state—its people trapped in cycles of brutality. By amplifying the voices of the oppressed and holding perpetrators accountable, global actors can help steer Myanmar back toward justice, stability, and respect for human rights.