Justice Nexus

Potential for Civil Conflict in Israel: An Intelligence Brief

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Executive Summary

In 2025, Israel faces unprecedented internal polarization driven by deep ideological, religious, and social rifts. Key flashpoints include disputes over judicial reform, military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox communities, and divergent views on the ongoing Gaza war. Polling indicates that 60 percent of Israelis perceive their society as on the brink of civil war, and prominent figures—including former Supreme Court Chief Justice Aharon Barak—warn that recent actions by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government have brought the country “very close to civil war.” (jfeed.com, apnews.com) While outright armed conflict remains unlikely in the short term, escalating protests, refusal of military service by certain demographics, and episodic violence by far-right factions create a credible risk of localized clashes that could spiral into broader unrest if unmitigated.

Background

Since early 2023, Israel’s politics have been dominated by Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, which has pursued judicial reforms aimed at curtailing Supreme Court oversight. These initiatives prompted mass protests—peaking with over 200,000 demonstrators in Tel Aviv in February 2023—and triggered significant friction between civilian society, the judiciary, and security institutions. (en.wikipedia.org, jewishjournal.com) Early 2025 saw renewed turmoil when the government attempted to dismiss both the Shin Bet head (Ronen Bar) and the Attorney General (Gali Baharav-Miara). The Supreme Court intervened, issuing injunctions and deepening the constitutional crisis. (apnews.com, ft.com)

Concurrently, internal divisions over the Gaza war have intensified. Far-right groups—such as The Revolt—have escalated extremist rhetoric, advocating for a Halachic state and targeting government institutions they view as insufficiently hawkish. (en.wikipedia.org) Ultra-Orthodox (“Haredi”) parties continue to resist military conscription, straining relations between secular Israelis and religious communities. (reuters.com) As of June 2025, protests calling for the resignation of key ministers and denial of military service by certain reservist groups have grown, signaling a weakening of traditional social cohesion. (aljazeera.com)

Methodology

This brief synthesizes open-source intelligence (OSINT) from January to June 2025, utilizing:

  • Media Reporting
    • Reuters coverage of parliamentary dissolution efforts and ultra-Orthodox exemptions disputes. (reuters.com)
    • Associated Press analysis of legal and political crises surrounding Netanyahu’s cabinet decisions. (apnews.com)
  • Opinion & Risk Assessments
    • New Arab commentary examining structural divisions and historical precedents for internal conflict. (newarab.com)
    • Jewish Journal’s “Risk Assessment” piece evaluating the polarization metrics within Israeli society. (jewishjournal.com)
  • Polling Data
    • JFeed analysis indicating that 60 percent of respondents fear a civil war, referencing statements by former Chief Justice Aharon Barak. (jfeed.com)
  • NGO and Think-Tank Reports
    • Al Jazeera reporting on internal unrest linked to Gaza war protests and refusal of service. (aljazeera.com)
    • OIIP’s “Smoke and Mirrors” analysis on societal fissures exacerbated by wartime fatigue. (oiip.ac.at)

Cross-validation was performed by comparing independent sources to identify consistent trends in protest activity, political maneuvers, and early indicators of violent incidents.

Findings

1. Political Polarization and Judicial Crisis

  • Judicial Reform Dispute: Netanyahu’s coalition introduced bills to limit the Supreme Court’s authority over government appointments and to grant the Knesset overriding power over judicial rulings. Opposition parties and civil society perceived these moves as an assault on democracy, triggering mass demonstrations since early 2023. Although protests waned after a brief reprieve in mid-2024, renewed attempts to dismiss the Shin Bet chief and Attorney General in March 2025 reignited street mobilization. (en.wikipedia.org, apnews.com)
  • Threats of Parliamentary Dissolution: On June 4, 2025, the Yesh Atid–led opposition moved to dissolve the Knesset, citing eroded trust in Netanyahu’s leadership and coalition fracturing over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions. (reuters.com) If passed, fresh elections could produce an even more fragmented Knesset, heightening instability.

2. Societal Cleavages: Secular vs. Religious

  • Military Service Exemptions: Ultra-Orthodox parties (United Torah Judaism) demand expanded conscription exemptions for yeshiva students. In early June 2025, they threatened to withdraw support unless such exemptions were formalized. This standoff risks collapse of the governing coalition and has fueled resentment among secular Israelis who view exemptions as unfair. (reuters.com)
  • Refusal to Serve: A growing minority of secular reservists have publicly declared refusal to train, citing objections to the government’s policies. Al Jazeera reports refusal-to-serve protests gaining momentum, indicating fraying bonds between society and the IDF—a historically unifying institution. (aljazeera.com)

3. Far-Right Extremism and Episodic Violence

  • The Revolt and Kahanist Elements: Organizations like The Revolt espouse a vision of dismantling the modern state in favor of a Halachic monarchy. Though numerically small (30–40 members), their advocacy of violence—evidenced by repeated arson attacks—signals willingness among fringe elements to engage in extra-legal action. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • Targeted Attacks on Officials: In May 2025, an extremist cell affiliated with Kahanist ideology attempted an assault on a Tel Aviv synagogue during a meeting of local activists, injuring three. While security services thwarted larger plots, such incidents demonstrate the capacity for far-right violence to spark wider unrest. (palestinechronicle.com)

4. Protest Dynamics and Public Sentiment

  • Mass Demonstrations: Weekly “black flag” protests—organized by a coalition of left-wing, centrist, and liberal groups—have drawn 20,000–30,000 participants, demanding checks on executive power. Conversely, pro-government rallies under the slogan “Democracy or Chaos” gather smaller but fervent crowds. Each side accuses the other of threatening national security. (newarab.com)
  • Polls Indicating Fear of Internal Conflict: A March 2025 Ynet poll found that 60 percent of Israelis believe the country is “very close to civil war.” Former Chief Justice Barak warned that actions to oust top security officials constitute “tipping points” toward internal collapse. (jfeed.com, apnews.com)

5. Security Service Strain and Morale

  • IDF Reservist Morale: According to Crisis Group, the IDF’s reserve mobilization for the Gaza conflict has led to “moral exhaustion,” with some reservists openly criticizing leadership decisions. (crisisgroup.org) Declining trust in government directives undermines the IDF’s cohesion.
  • Shin Bet vs. Government Friction: The attempt to dismiss Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar—who publicly criticized Netanyahu’s policies—has strained the agency’s standing. Analysts note that sidelining experienced security leaders could erode operational effectiveness and public confidence. (apnews.com, ft.com)

Analysis

Drivers of Internal Conflict Risk

  1. Institutional Erosion of Trust
    • Repeated attempts to restructure the judiciary and remove independent security chiefs generate perceptions of executive overreach. When citizens perceive their legal recourse as ineffective, they are likelier to support extra-legal measures. (en.wikipedia.org, apnews.com)
  2. Identity-Based Fragmentation
    • Longstanding tensions between secular, religious, and Haredi communities over national service obligations and the role of religion in state affairs deepen societal fissures. Dispute over military exemptions has symbolic weight far beyond policy details, fueling existential fears on both sides. (reuters.com, aljazeera.com)
  3. Polarization Over Gaza War
    • The Gaza war has sharpened ideological divides: left-leaning Israelis demand negotiations and civilian protections, while right-wing factions emphasize security and punitive measures. Disagreement on core existential issues undermines common cause. (oiip.ac.at, carnegieendowment.org)
  4. Role of Extremist Actors
    • Although far-right groups remain marginal numerically, their willingness to use violence—coupled with impunity in some cases—creates flashpoints. If state institutions are perceived to tacitly condone such groups, it emboldens further violence. (en.wikipedia.org, palestinechronicle.com)

Likelihood and Potential Scenarios

  • Short-Term Outlook (Next 6 Months)
    • Low Probability of Widespread Armed Conflict: While protests will likely intensify, most segments remain committed to nonviolent action. Security services retain capacity to suppress isolated violence. (jewishjournal.com, palestinechronicle.com)
    • High Probability of Localized Clashes: Expect periodic clashes between counter-protesters and police, and sporadic far-right attacks on left-wing venues, especially around sensitive dates (e.g., judicial votes, conscription debates). (palestinechronicle.com, aljazeera.com)
  • Mid-Term Outlook (6–12 Months)
    • Moderate Risk of Contested Governance Crisis: If parliamentary dissolution proceeds and elections yield no clear majority, the resulting caretaker government may lack legitimacy, increasing appetite for mass mobilization. (reuters.com, jfeed.com)
    • Elevated Risk of Military Fatigue Spillover: Continuous Gaza conflict strains the IDF; low morale among reservists may translate into heightened civilian protest activity or political strikes (e.g., reservists refusing deployment), potentially impacting national security posture. (crisisgroup.org, aljazeera.com)
  • Long-Term Outlook (Beyond 12 Months)
    • Low to Moderate Probability of Broader Civil Unrest: Should political deadlock persist and economic conditions worsen (e.g., post-war reconstruction burdens), social safety nets may fray, creating fertile ground for mass mobilization. Structural divisions around religion, ethnicity (Ashkenazi vs. Sephardic), and politics could coalesce into protracted unrest. (palestinechronicle.com, michaellaitman.medium.com)

Implications

  • Governance and Legitimacy: Prolonged institutional crisis undermines public trust, eroding Israel’s democratic foundations and weakening diplomatic standing.
  • Security Posture: The IDF’s capacity to respond to external threats may degrade if reservist participation declines and internal security agencies are politicized.
  • Social Cohesion: As polarization hardens, inter-communal violence (e.g., Arab-Jewish or secular-Haredi clashes) may increase, compounding overall instability.
  • Economic Impact: Investor confidence is sensitive to political stability; repeated elections or policy paralysis could deter foreign investment and hamper recovery efforts post-conflict.
  • Regional Ramifications: A domestically weakened Israel may alter regional power dynamics, encouraging adversaries (e.g., Hezbollah) to test boundaries, and emboldening factions seeking to exploit internal strife.

Recommendations

  1. Reinforce Institutional Checks and Balances
    • Defer Controversial Legislation: Temporarily suspend further judicial overhaul until an emergency cross-partisan commission—comprising legal, civil society, and security experts—can propose reforms that command broad support. (en.wikipedia.org, jewishjournal.com)
    • Ensure Security Agency Independence: Maintain Shin Bet’s operational autonomy by reinstating the head or replacing only through transparent, legal procedures. Public messaging should emphasize continuity of security leadership. (apnews.com, ft.com)
  2. Mitigate Societal Divisions
    • Conscription Compromise: Institute a phased integration of Haredi youth into the IDF with tailored service options—such as shortened basic training and non-combat roles—paired with growth of parallel yeshiva programs that include national service components. (reuters.com, aljazeera.com)
    • Dialogue Platforms: Fund community-level interfaith and inter-communal forums—especially in mixed cities (e.g., Haifa, Jerusalem)—to foster dialogue on shared concerns, reducing “zero-sum” perceptions. (newarab.com, oiip.ac.at)
  3. Contain Extremist Violence
    • Targeted Law Enforcement: Deploy specialized units to monitor identified far-right groups (e.g., The Revolt) and apply existing anti-terror laws to dismantle their networks while safeguarding human rights. (en.wikipedia.org, palestinechronicle.com)
    • Counter-Radicalization Programs: Expand educational initiatives in at-risk communities to challenge extremist narratives—leveraging former IDF reservists and respected community leaders in messaging. (oiip.ac.at, carnegieendowment.org)
  4. Preserve IDF Cohesion
    • Reservist Morale Measures: Introduce recognition programs and mental health support for reservists, emphasizing transparency in operational decision-making. Encourage senior IDF officers to maintain open communication channels with reservist representatives. (crisisgroup.org, aljazeera.com)
    • Clear Rules of Engagement: Publicly reaffirm that military orders will be based solely on security needs, not political directives. This reinforces the IDF’s apolitical standing and reduces the incentive for reservist refusal.
  5. Promote Economic Resilience
    • Economic Stimulus Package: Launch targeted economic relief for sectors affected by political uncertainty—especially tech and tourism—paired with small-business loans contingent on local hiring. (oiip.ac.at, carnegieendowment.org)
    • Engage Diaspora Investment: Mobilize Israeli diaspora networks to invest in joint projects aimed at reducing regional inequality, thereby fostering a sense of shared national purpose.

Conclusion

While an outright civil war in Israel remains a low-probability scenario in 2025, the convergence of political, social, and security pressures has brought the country to a precarious inflection point. Judicial battles, disputes over conscription, and ideological polarization—amid a protracted Gaza conflict—have strained the social contract. Localized violence by extremist factions and refusal of military service by some segments signal warning signs of deeper fractures. Rapid, inclusive political dialogue—combined with measures to preserve institutional integrity, contain extremist violence, and bolster social cohesion—is essential to avert a descent into broader internal conflict. Continuous monitoring of protest intensity, reservist participation rates, and extremist activity will be crucial in anticipating and mitigating escalation risks.

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